Let's play my favorite game - blind stats...
Player A - 26.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 7.1 APG, 50%FG, 27.2 Player Efficiency Rating,
Team Record: 54-23
Player B - 24.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 8.0 APG, 44%FG, 23.0 Player Efficiency Rating
Team Record: 56-20
Now if I asked you to pick which player deserves the MVP this year, you would probably go with Player A. At the very least, it could be considered almost a push.
Well, if you haven't already guessed, Player A is LeBron James and Player B is Derrick Rose. Most people have already anointed Rose as the MVP season, and I tend to question why.
Most people don't want to give LeBron the MVP for two main reasons. The first being his ill fated "decision" over the summer. People still haven't gotten over that and feel like LeBron doesn't deserve the MVP because of some sort of karmic retribution. The second reason is that it would give LeBron three consecutive MVP's, something that only Larry Bird, Bill Russell, and Wilt Chamberlain have done. How could LeBron be included in that hallowed group?
Everyone will point to Rose leading Chicago to the East's number 1 seed, and how he carried the Bulls with Boozer and Noah injured. But Rose hasn't been as important to his team as LeBron has been to his team. EWA (estimated wins added) calculates how many wins a players adds to his team over a league average player. Basically, if Player X has a 15 EWA, and you replaced him with an average player, the team would lose 15 wins.
LeBron is first in the league with a 24.1 EWA, while Rose brings a 17.8 EWA to the table. So LeBron is worth 6.3 more wins to his team that Rose. This shows that LeBron is more important to his team than Rose.
Statistically, LeBron is also putting up more impressive numbers in every category except assists, in which he is behind Rose by less that one assist per game.
Personally, I think LeBron once again deserves the MVP. I would have no problem if Rose won it, but I feel as though LeBron is more deserving of a candidate.
Unfortunately people need to start getting used to the fact that LeBron will probably end up as one of the 20 best players ever.
The King still Reigns.
7 years ago
estimated wins added key word estimated. So that point is mute.
ReplyDeletenow do I think LBJ is the most valuable player? no Wade and Bosch plus a deeper bench (with the cap LBJ soaks up) can win 54 games and Wade has a ring.
Rose is valuable the most valuable to his team.
"MVP of the season, He deserves it. He's playing that well. He deserves it. Without a doubt. And if he doesn't get it, now he'll see how I felt a lot of years."
-Michael Air Jordan
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/news/story?id=6199740&campaign=rss&source=ESPNHeadlines
I DISAGREE. DERRICK ROSE IS ONLY AN MVP CANIDATE BECAUSE HE IS THE ONLY DOMINANT PLAYER ON HIS TEAM. BOOZER IS GOOD BUT NOT THE OLD BOOZER. LeBRON IS GETTING THROWN TO THE WAYSIDE BECAUSE HE PLAYS WITH WADE AND BOSH. I DO AGREE THAT THE MVP IS JUST THAT...THE "MOST VALUABLE PLAYER" TO ONE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE...BUT I DONT THINK THAT IF DERRICK ROSE WASNT IN CHICAGO AND THEY HAD AN AVERAGE...MAYBE EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE PG, THEY WOULDNT STILL BE A MID SEED CONTENDER. LEBRON KEPT HIS NUMBERS JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS HIS 2 PREVIOUS MVPS...NOW HIS ASSISTS JUST GO TO WADE AND BOSH...HIS PPG MAY BE DOWN A LITTLE BUT THATS BECAUSE HE HAS TEAMMATES THAT CAN SCORE AND DOESNT HAVE TO DO IT ALL ON HIS OWN. HE IS THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER OF THE HEAT AND OF THE LEAGUE. THERES A REASON THEY ARE ALWAYS ON TV
ReplyDeleteAdam, your logic never ceases to amaze me. Of course the stat is estimated, but sabermetrics (aka advanced stats) have proven to be very correct over the years in analyzing players. So forgive me for trusting statistical experts over your biased opinion. And while MJ23 has proven to be the best basketball player of all time, he isn't the best player evaluator of all time, let alone of this year. His track record as a GM has shown how many mistakes he makes when it comes to judging a players skill set. So again, even his Heirness' opinion doesn't mean a whole lot to me.
ReplyDeleteJamie,I agree with your response - I just wish you didn't feel obligated to use caps the whole time. But I must forgive and forget
MY WORK KEYBOARD IS ALWAYS ON CAPS...NOTHING I COULD DO...KNEW YOUD SAY SOMETHING...AND TO ADAM, THEORETICAL SITUATION; YOU ARE TO PICK PLAYER A OR B IN BRIANS POST ADDING IN EWA...BLINDLY, WHO WOULD YOU PICK?...IF YOU SAY PLAYER YOU B YOU ARE SPITEFUL BASTARD AND I LOVE YOU FOR IT, BC YOU KNOW IT WOULD BE A. PLUS THINK THEY ADDED PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES TO THAT BLIND PLAYER....THE CHOICE IS CLEAR
ReplyDeleteLETS ALSO NOT EXCLUDE DWIGHT HOWARD...
ReplyDeletePPG: 23.2; RPG: 14.2; APG: 1.3; EFF: + 28.50
AND 2.4 BLKS PG, THE MAGIC...BY FAR WOULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TEAM WITH THE LOSS OF THEIR STAR
ReplyDelete1) ALL CAPS IS THE GREATEST THING EVER
ReplyDelete2) BRIAN YOU ARE RIGHT STATISTICAL EXPERTS ARE VERY RELIABLE THAT IS WHY UCONN AND BUTLER WERE BOTH NUMBER ONE SEEDS.
3)STATS DON'T WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS
4)YOU CAN'T MEASURE CLUTCH AND LBJ DOESN'T HAVE IT
5) JAMIE, I WOULD TAKE PLAYER B 101 TIMES OUT OF 100
I understand why you like posting anonymous players to compare (i.e.jimmer and national champion kemba) but this method of comparison is flawed. Stats are not the only thing. Stats are for fat, old broadcasters who have really no idea what they're talking about(i.e. Musberger). I don't want to say that stats are meaningless, quite the opposite actually. They can be very useful and usually add another dimension to analysis. However, I think stats are far too abused by people who can't use their eyes to actually watch a game. Stats are knowledge learned, and as Confucius said, "Learning without thought is labor lost; thought without learning is perilous." Instead of judging two anonymous players based on pure numbers, lets look at it from a balanced perspective.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Bron had put up nasty numbers this year, but Rose's most important skills can't be quantified. He is THE floor general. I don't know if you've ever played basketball before, but thats the most vital position on the floor. You can't put a number to his defensive effort or his will. Stats are limited, and by basing an opinion completely on numbers you've learned or found on espn.com, you miss the other half of the picture. Lets look at stats with context, instead of applying stats without thought.
I appreciate and understand your concern with stat driven analysis. And I only use stats to highlight feelings I get from watching games. My life revolves around sports and I watch and read about the NBA more than is healthy. I have watched both Rose and LeBron numerous times this year. Rose is a vocal leader, emotional spark, and floor general of the Bulls - no doubt about that. But if you have ever watched a Heat game, LeBron runs that team. Their "point guard" is merely another shooter. LeBron handles the ball just as much as Rose (LeBron's usage rating is only one point lower than Rose's - this stat tells you the number of posessions a player uses per 40 minutes). And for Adam, usage rate is a factual stat just like PPG or RPG - their is no analysis to it, just cold hard numbers. Anyone who says that the Heat are Wade's team have clearly never watched the Heat play. LeBron is the emotional leader of that team. He is also one of the best defenders at his position, similar to Rose (who isn't the best defensive PG). So while I use stats to back up my claims, they aren't the only factor I look at. It's just hard to convince people of what I see on the court in terms of intangibles, so I try to back my thoughts up with stats. Hope this explains my position a bit better. And like I have said, if Rose wins, I won't think it was a terrible choice - I just like LeBron better this year as the MVP. Simple as that.
ReplyDeleteI AM ACTUALLY SHIFTING MY POSITION TO DWIGHT HOWARD. WHILE BRON AND ROSE ARE CRUCIAL ELEMENTS TO THEIR TEAM, I BELIEVE BOTH TEAMS WOULD STILL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS WITHOUT THEM. DWIGHT HOWARD HAS THIS YEAR WHAT CLEVELAND HAD FOR 7 YEARS...THE DIFFERENCE MAKER(THE LEBRON EFFECT). THE MAGIC WOULD NOT BE A PLAYOFF TEAM WITHOUT HOWARD...PERIOD! MAYBE IN THE OLD EAST WHERE 4 OF THE 8 TEAMS WERE BELOW .500. ITS THE SOLE REASON THAT THE MAGIC CANT WIN THE BIG ONE...THEY ONLY HAVE ONE STAR PLAYER. DWIGHT HOWARD IS THE BEST BIG MAN BY FAR. THIS POINT PREFACES THE FACT THAT HE IS BEING SLIGHTED FOR NOT HAVING ENOUGH "BIG MAN" COMPETITION. BS! ALMOST 24PPG, 14RPG! 2.5BLKS/G...MONSTER YEAR. ROSE IS A TOP TEN POINT GUARD AND BRON IS IN THE HUNT AS THE BEST SF/PF/SG/PG LOL BUT DWIGHT HOWARD IS ABSOLUTELY THE BEST C IN THE LEAGUE AND IS CARRYING THE MAGIC TO THE PLAYOFFS ON THOSE ENORMOUS SHOULDERS ONCE AGAIN...AND EVEN HE IS FEELING THE WEIGHT AS LEBRON DID IN CLEVELAND
ReplyDeleteThe Queen isn't even the MVP of his team...psh chew on these stat rat:
ReplyDeletehttp://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/5874/whos-the-most-irreplaceable-of-big-three