Sunday, October 23, 2011

Phoneyball - Brian

Recently a movie came out called "Moneyball" which told the story of Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane.

It tells how Beane "transformed" baseball by using advanced statistics (sabermetrics) to build a baseball team, essentially defying the norms and standards of creating a title contender.

The movie leads you to believe that Beane is a great manager who revolutionized the game and changed baseball forever. While this makes a nice movie, it's not entirely true.

Sabermetrics were around and used before Beane fully implemented them within his club.

Sabermetrics also are not the main way in which teams build a roster. They are more used by baseball experts and fantasy junkies.

Unfortunately for the writers of "Moneyball," cash still rules the league and whoever has the deepest pockets typically comes out on top.

The last ten World Series champions with their payroll rank in parenthesis:

San Fransisco Giants (9th)
New York Yankees (1st)
Philadelphia Phillies (12th)
Boston Red Sox (2nd)
St. Louis Cardinals (11th)
Chicago White Sox (13th)
Boston Red Sox (2nd)
Florida Marlins (25th)
Anaheim Angels (15th)
Arizona Diamondbacks (8th)

For the most part, you have to at least be in the top half of the league in terms of payroll to have a shot.

The one anomaly would be the 2003 Florida Marlins. The Marlins were lead by a core of players (Miguel Cabrera/Ivan Rodriguez/Dontrelle Willis/Josh Beckett) who either were traded or left via free agency because the Marlins couldn't afford them. Now the Marlins sit at the bottom of the standings because they were unable to retain star players or pay for new ones.

Teams (like the Tampa Bay Rays) can catch lighting in a bottle by building from within, but that usually has more to do with scouting/drafting than it does with finding sabermetric gems. Then they lose their core because they can't afford them (Tampa lost Garza/Jackson/Crawford/etc.).

So while sabermetrics play some role on some teams, the name of the game still continues to be money, money, and money.

The A's are a perfect example, sitting in the bottom quarter of payroll year in and year out and having made the playoffs once in the past eight years.

I guess there is a reason it's called "Moneyball."